[00:16.060 --> 00:21.400]  After all they said, I could he simply say no.
[00:23.720 --> 00:29.660]  After all they said, he turned away from her to go.
[00:30.040 --> 00:34.080]  She said she wouldn't cry, that was real just a lie.
[00:37.360 --> 00:42.640]  She knows the noises in her mind.
[00:43.480 --> 00:45.380]  Nothing to let us inside.
[00:57.320 --> 01:01.660]  The feeling's gone, she's upside down.
[01:01.980 --> 01:04.880]  The picture's behind her to go.
[01:07.040 --> 01:12.420]  After all they said, could he simply say no.
[01:14.680 --> 01:20.300]  After all they said, he turned away from her to go.
[01:20.820 --> 01:24.840]  She said she wouldn't cry, that was real just a lie.
[01:24.840 --> 01:29.960]  After all they said, could he simply say no.
[01:32.440 --> 01:38.020]  After all they said, he turned away from her to go.
[01:38.500 --> 01:42.280]  She said she wouldn't cry, that was real just a lie.
[01:48.760 --> 01:54.600]  This is supposed to start at 10, but Robert wants four hours and seven minutes.
[01:55.960 --> 01:57.200]  This is Robert Steele.
[01:57.220 --> 01:59.480]  How many of you have seen Robert Steele at past conferences?
[02:00.400 --> 02:00.940]  Excellent.
[02:00.940 --> 02:04.120]  Well, not many.
[02:04.420 --> 02:05.240]  Don't get depressed.
[02:06.720 --> 02:08.420]  Anyway, you guys are going to enjoy yourself.
[02:08.560 --> 02:09.100]  Robert Steele.
[02:16.440 --> 02:19.700]  I think I'm Jello Biafra's evil twin.
[02:20.020 --> 02:21.580]  We were separated at birth.
[02:24.140 --> 02:26.360]  I really love coming to this conference.
[02:27.320 --> 02:29.840]  Because you guys are my breath of fresh air.
[02:29.980 --> 02:31.240]  Guys and gals are my...
[02:31.240 --> 02:35.900]  guys, gals and in-betweens are my breath of fresh air.
[02:38.580 --> 02:42.280]  How many of you heard my hacking national intelligence intro?
[02:43.900 --> 02:45.400]  Okay, so a lot of you missed that.
[02:45.620 --> 02:46.080]  That's okay.
[02:47.700 --> 02:52.000]  www.oss.net has a bunch of stuff.
[02:52.140 --> 02:56.660]  20,000 or more pages of free stuff about open source intelligence.
[02:56.980 --> 02:58.920]  And it has three reference pages at the top.
[02:59.840 --> 03:00.900]  Is this loud enough?
[03:02.360 --> 03:02.800]  No?
[03:03.180 --> 03:03.660]  Turn it up.
[03:03.800 --> 03:04.840]  Because I'm not going to yell.
[03:05.200 --> 03:05.940]  I'm tired.
[03:06.540 --> 03:07.260]  Turn it up.
[03:07.980 --> 03:08.420]  Somebody?
[03:09.740 --> 03:10.660]  Laszlo with power.
[03:10.780 --> 03:11.120]  There we go.
[03:11.220 --> 03:11.960]  That sounds a little better.
[03:12.880 --> 03:13.320]  Okay.
[03:14.400 --> 03:17.700]  Well, since so many of you didn't hear the other thing, I'll give you a little short story.
[03:17.780 --> 03:20.520]  But let me just tell you that at OSS.net there are three portal pages.
[03:20.880 --> 03:23.640]  One is on why we're failing in the global war on terror.
[03:24.440 --> 03:32.160]  The second is on collective intelligence, which is all those bottom grass roots things that you can pay attention to.
[03:32.380 --> 03:34.740]  And I've been friends with Dead Cow for a while.
[03:34.740 --> 03:36.140]  I still have the original sticker.
[03:36.640 --> 03:39.540]  And I think this hacktivism is a good thing.
[03:39.920 --> 03:43.440]  Anything that reduces censorship and outs corruption is a good thing.
[03:45.680 --> 03:55.340]  www.osint.meetup.com is where you can go to either join an existing OSINT discussion group or start your own.
[03:56.100 --> 04:04.400]  OSINT just happens to be a convenient word for all seven tribes to use as a meetup facility.
[04:04.780 --> 04:05.280]  Okay.
[04:05.420 --> 04:06.900]  I don't own the word OSINT.
[04:07.060 --> 04:08.400]  Nobody owns the word OSINT.
[04:08.580 --> 04:10.900]  It's simply code for public intelligence.
[04:11.280 --> 04:16.180]  It took me a while to talk Laura into doing it because she thought intelligence was too generic a term.
[04:16.180 --> 04:17.780]  But she understood OSINT.
[04:18.360 --> 04:20.580]  So I'd certainly encourage you guys to do that.
[04:21.780 --> 04:29.020]  If you have time, and I'm getting all these admin remarks out of the way in case you just want to leave and go to sleep, which is a very sensible thing that I recommend highly.
[04:31.080 --> 04:37.520]  At Amazon.com, if you go to any one of my books, just look up Robert David Steele and then intelligence is the subject.
[04:38.800 --> 04:50.200]  And those comments where it says, see more about me, it really should say, see my other reviews, my 479 other reviews, and my list of recommended books.
[04:50.220 --> 04:52.840]  I am the number one Amazon reviewer for non-fiction.
[04:53.380 --> 04:54.020]  Thank you.
[04:54.080 --> 04:54.980]  I will go through all of that.
[04:55.320 --> 04:56.400]  God bless you, Lazlow.
[04:58.120 --> 05:02.040]  I'm the number one reviewer of non-fiction about national security and global issues.
[05:02.040 --> 05:07.180]  I'm 53 overall in relation to pulp fiction, movies, and music.
[05:07.740 --> 05:11.420]  And I'm not saying that because that makes me special.
[05:11.420 --> 05:16.320]  I'm saying that because America is reading about national security and global issues.
[05:16.380 --> 05:25.160]  And if you want a real fast, free, two-hour graduate level course on national security, all you have to do is read 479 reviews.
[05:26.040 --> 05:46.220]  Because I have a very systematic coverage of information society, intelligence, quas, spies, secrecy, and all that stuff, emerging threats, international blowback, discontent, hatred for America, strategy, force structure, and then finally U.S.
[05:46.380 --> 05:48.800]  politics and how it's screwing up our national security.
[05:49.040 --> 05:50.460]  Has everybody seen my jacket?
[05:51.400 --> 05:52.020]  Okay.
[05:56.620 --> 05:57.060]  No.
[05:57.580 --> 05:59.940]  Actually, it's a very cheap hex jacket.
[05:59.940 --> 06:02.860]  And I've got a hole in my ass that you can't see from there.
[06:04.340 --> 06:08.980]  From where my watch has been cutting in when I go for my wallet.
[06:09.620 --> 06:10.060]  What's that?
[06:12.920 --> 06:15.160]  I do occasionally go into Infoglut.
[06:15.160 --> 06:15.620]  I'm sorry.
[06:17.040 --> 06:19.440]  But I actually have a couple of structured briefs.
[06:20.120 --> 06:24.300]  But since so many of you missed the other thing, let me just tell you a tiny little bit about where I came from.
[06:25.640 --> 06:28.720]  Because it cost you $20 million for me to get smart.
[06:31.580 --> 06:33.720]  I started out as the son of an oil man.
[06:33.940 --> 06:36.520]  I did 10 years in Latin America, 10 years in Asia.
[06:37.540 --> 06:39.380]  Four years in Vietnam as a kid.
[06:39.860 --> 06:45.120]  Going through 10 coup d'etats, including the one where Diem was murdered, with CIA complicity.
[06:46.820 --> 06:49.180]  Trading cigarettes for bullets after each coup.
[06:49.380 --> 06:51.840]  And then starting golf courses on fire by accident.
[06:52.680 --> 06:54.300]  As I burned the gunpowder.
[06:54.720 --> 06:56.420]  My 14 year old is going through this now.
[06:59.240 --> 07:01.480]  Came back, went to graduate school.
[07:01.740 --> 07:03.460]  Got a masters in predicting revolution.
[07:03.880 --> 07:07.200]  Decided I'd become too intellectual, so I joined the United States Marine Corps.
[07:08.260 --> 07:10.320]  That had the desired rounding effect.
[07:10.740 --> 07:11.980]  I learned the F word.
[07:14.160 --> 07:15.560]  And I just love it.
[07:15.660 --> 07:17.800]  I mean, any of you that are considering joining the U.S.
[07:17.920 --> 07:19.700]  military, or the U.S.
[07:19.820 --> 07:22.820]  intelligence community, or your local police counterintelligence, do it.
[07:23.220 --> 07:25.860]  You get one chance in your life to join these clubs.
[07:25.860 --> 07:29.480]  And even if you quit after two or three years, it will change you forever.
[07:29.900 --> 07:31.620]  These are all good people.
[07:32.180 --> 07:34.480]  Good, well-meaning people, badly managed.
[07:34.860 --> 07:35.380]  Okay?
[07:35.960 --> 07:39.780]  And we can talk about that in the interactive period after the toucan briefs.
[07:40.900 --> 07:44.180]  But I then found garrison duty very boring.
[07:44.440 --> 07:47.300]  I missed the Vietnam War as a uniformed officer.
[07:47.360 --> 07:48.540]  I was in infantry.
[07:49.040 --> 07:50.540]  So I joined the CIA.
[07:51.200 --> 07:55.100]  And I was very glad to be part of the CIA and a clandestine case officer.
[07:56.220 --> 08:00.360]  Came out from undercover after TOEFL wrote a chapter about me called The Future of the Spy.
[08:03.640 --> 08:15.740]  And did six tours, three overseas clandestine tours, three tours in Washington doing imagery, signals, advanced information technology, smart maps that remember operational histories of a city.
[08:15.900 --> 08:19.440]  So if you're going to go do a dead drop, it reminds you the police chief lives there.
[08:20.080 --> 08:21.440]  You know, things like that.
[08:22.040 --> 08:23.080]  And that was fun.
[08:23.080 --> 08:26.920]  And then the Marine Corps invited me to come stand up to Marine Corps Intelligence Center.
[08:27.360 --> 08:45.040]  Now, up to this point, I think hackers, Jesuits, and spies share one common characteristic, which is they're absolutely certain they are gods that walk three feet off the planet and can do no wrong.
[08:45.860 --> 08:56.540]  So it was a real shock for me, having been a spy who was a god, to actually have to stand up a new national intelligence production facility and produce intelligence.
[08:57.080 --> 09:16.860]  And after spending $20 million, including $10 million for a capability to touch anything that NSA, CIA, FBI, all of these guys produced, I was absolutely stunned to find out that 80 to 90% of what I needed to do policy intelligence, acquisition or procurement intelligence,
[09:17.080 --> 09:28.880]  which is what do we build and buy with your taxpayer dollar, and operational intelligence, 80 to 90% of it was not secret, not in English, not online, and not known to anybody in Washington.
[09:29.140 --> 09:30.580]  This just blew my mind.
[09:30.860 --> 09:33.720]  So I got permission from my general.
[09:33.940 --> 09:35.640]  I spent four years trying to teach the U.S.
[09:35.700 --> 09:38.980]  intelligence community from inside the government, finally gave up.
[09:40.020 --> 09:42.800]  Got permission from my general to run an international conference.
[09:42.940 --> 09:45.100]  We were expecting 150 insiders to show up.
[09:45.760 --> 09:51.100]  629 people showed up, including 15 Swedes, which tells you something about the Swedish early warning network.
[09:52.900 --> 09:53.640]  They're good.
[09:53.860 --> 09:54.760]  Watch your wallet.
[09:57.540 --> 09:58.440]  They're very good.
[09:58.540 --> 09:59.360]  I respect them a lot.
[09:59.960 --> 10:05.600]  So the lawyer said, okay, you had permission for the first one, but now you're famous so you can't do it again.
[10:06.500 --> 10:06.980]  Hello?
[10:07.760 --> 10:09.920]  I succeeded so I can't do it again?
[10:10.500 --> 10:13.100]  This is the logic of bureaucracy and the law.
[10:14.060 --> 10:15.080]  So I resigned.
[10:15.260 --> 10:16.740]  I've given up three retirements.
[10:16.940 --> 10:24.360]  I bet my house, signed a contract with the hotel, and I've been doing these conferences every year.
[10:24.920 --> 10:26.720]  called Global Information Forum.
[10:26.840 --> 10:31.340]  And they're basically about open source intelligence, intelligence reform, and stuff like that.
[10:31.520 --> 10:39.860]  And unbeknownst to me until this year, the term collective intelligence is acquiring importance everywhere else.
[10:40.100 --> 10:50.080]  And so if you're going to Google, Google for collective intelligence, and then Google for open source intelligence and OSINT, and you'll get to the cream, such as it is on Google.
[10:51.460 --> 10:53.180]  All right, is that enough of an introduction?
[10:56.210 --> 11:02.330]  All right, this brief is one I've been giving all over the country for the American Committees on Foreign Relations.
[11:03.450 --> 11:05.850]  And I think this headline talks about you guys.
[11:06.590 --> 11:09.390]  A nation's best defense is an educated citizenry.
[11:09.810 --> 11:13.310]  I think hackers have matured tremendously in the last 10 years.
[11:14.730 --> 11:30.150]  I think you now need to become more organized, more structured, and I think we all need to go back to our neighborhoods, and we need to basically have this OSINT meetup kind of thing where once a month, police intelligence, business intelligence, academic intelligence,
[11:30.390 --> 11:32.750]  religious intelligence, these seven tribes are all together.
[11:32.750 --> 11:41.970]  And for those of you that missed the morning speech yesterday, at OSS.net, in the OSINT portal, if you look down, you'll see the OSINT story.
[11:42.330 --> 11:45.030]  It's got the 10-page version of what I said yesterday.
[11:45.330 --> 11:56.030]  And so there are seven tribes, national, military, law enforcement, business, academic, NGO journalists, and then religions, labor unions, and citizens.
[11:56.330 --> 12:08.630]  And these seven tribes need to establish seven areas of standards for data capture, data processing, analytic tradecraft, analytic toolkits, defensive counterintelligence, training and leadership.
[12:08.990 --> 12:13.190]  And then these seven standards, these seven tribes, need to focus on seven issues.
[12:13.630 --> 12:15.630]  Seven big issues in every community.
[12:15.790 --> 12:18.350]  Public health, education, things like that.
[12:18.570 --> 12:18.930]  Okay?
[12:19.190 --> 12:22.750]  So this brief is my orientation to the real world.
[12:26.230 --> 12:31.290]  This is what $70 billion a year is buying, a lot of red space.
[12:33.910 --> 12:38.930]  You're paying $70 billion a year for 2% of what can be known.
[12:39.930 --> 12:45.390]  Basically, I did my second graduate thesis from the University of Oklahoma on what U.S.
[12:45.490 --> 12:46.990]  embassies collect, what the U.S.
[12:47.050 --> 12:49.630]  government collects overseas in all of its forms.
[12:49.630 --> 12:54.730]  And it turns out that embassies are staffed by State Department officers that are in the minority.
[12:55.110 --> 12:58.910]  They have no money with which to pay for legal, ethical information.
[12:59.410 --> 13:03.250]  They're limited by the physics of a 24-hour day and who is willing to be seen with them.
[13:03.730 --> 13:10.050]  The spies, on the other hand, have an unlimited amount of money, but require that you commit treason as a condition for listening to you.
[13:11.210 --> 13:12.830]  Somewhere in here is a pathology.
[13:13.570 --> 13:14.010]  Okay?
[13:14.490 --> 13:15.710]  Spies have too much money.
[13:15.790 --> 13:16.930]  The diplomats don't have enough.
[13:16.930 --> 13:18.210]  We've got to fix that.
[13:18.430 --> 13:23.210]  But this is my informed judgment about what we're actually collecting with this $70 billion.
[13:23.750 --> 13:31.690]  This is the National Reconnaissance Office, National Security Agency, Foreign Broadcast Information Service, United Nations State, and then the clandestine service.
[13:32.530 --> 13:35.070]  We don't even try to access most information.
[13:35.430 --> 13:40.150]  We don't have people going to listen to every mosque brief worldwide.
[13:40.150 --> 13:44.490]  We don't have people reading Arabic newspapers and neighborhood stuff.
[13:45.050 --> 13:48.070]  We don't even have people reading Hebrew properly.
[13:49.250 --> 13:51.710]  So we can understand the descent in Israel.
[13:52.150 --> 13:58.550]  We don't try and process all of this hard copy stuff into digital, and we can't translate most of what we collect.
[14:00.770 --> 14:02.890]  OSS works in 29 plus languages.
[14:03.970 --> 14:08.950]  This is what it looked like after 9-11, and certainly this should be close to home for those of you from New York.
[14:08.950 --> 14:14.830]  There is such a thing as evil, and we do have to deal with that evil, but I'm going to give you a larger context.
[14:15.670 --> 14:17.770]  These are the players in World War III.
[14:20.710 --> 14:33.190]  Bacteria, and corporate corruption, and ethnic criminal gangs as well as terrorists, and failed nation states, and inattentive citizens.
[14:34.610 --> 14:38.710]  It means most of us are the threats.
[14:40.490 --> 14:41.930]  I'm writing my third book.
[14:42.470 --> 14:49.150]  My first two books, just so you don't think I'm really too far off the reservation, were each had a forward written by a senator.
[14:49.970 --> 14:52.290]  Senator Boren wrote the forward to the first book.
[14:52.390 --> 14:54.410]  Senator Roberts wrote the forward to the second book.
[14:55.110 --> 14:58.750]  They were the past and the present serving chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee.
[14:58.950 --> 15:04.810]  So don't think of me as some kind of stone-throwing flame-throwing radical that's trying to burn down the IC.
[15:05.190 --> 15:07.750]  This is tough love for the approval of some senators.
[15:08.490 --> 15:10.010]  We need to fix this place.
[15:10.450 --> 15:15.530]  And my third book is on how intelligence is having absolutely no impact on how we spend the taxpayer dollar.
[15:16.170 --> 15:28.650]  We have too much of a heavy metal military, too much technical secret collection, not enough humans, not enough technical processing, not enough state and local intelligence, not enough focus on these other issues.
[15:29.870 --> 15:36.750]  Now for those of you new to this concept of national intelligence, these are the pieces.
[15:38.010 --> 15:41.750]  Collection, covert action, analysis, counterintelligence, leadership.
[15:42.070 --> 15:43.760]  And I want to make two points with this slide.
[15:43.760 --> 15:49.040]  The first is, none of the outer four pieces can work if you have shitty leadership.
[15:49.720 --> 15:53.300]  Which we have had in the U.S. intelligence community for the last 15 years.
[15:54.040 --> 15:54.560]  Okay?
[15:54.900 --> 15:57.260]  We have had really rotten leadership.
[15:59.300 --> 16:00.720]  And a lack of courage.
[16:00.800 --> 16:03.200]  A lack of courage to speak truth to policy.
[16:04.020 --> 16:08.300]  And secondly, all of these pieces have to work together.
[16:08.680 --> 16:13.620]  If you don't have good counterintelligence, then everything you accomplish is worthless.
[16:13.620 --> 16:17.620]  The FBI is just now coming to grips with the fact that it's been penetrated by the Turks.
[16:18.560 --> 16:19.000]  Okay?
[16:19.340 --> 16:21.200]  And the FBI is lying to the public.
[16:21.340 --> 16:27.580]  They're trying to repress an FBI officer's public testimony on the fact that they've been penetrated.
[16:27.580 --> 16:44.160]  on the fact that U.S. citizens doing Arabic translations for the FBI have either refused to translate other Muslims' tape recordings, or even worse, they have provided innocuous translations that have nothing to do with the actual words being said.
[16:45.240 --> 16:48.760]  And the FBI is clueless, or has been clueless up to this point.
[16:48.760 --> 16:50.680]  And now it's not clueless, it's in denial.
[16:51.320 --> 16:51.820]  Okay?
[16:51.960 --> 16:52.820]  The system's broken.
[16:54.500 --> 16:57.940]  Now, everyone asks me, what went wrong in 9-11?
[16:59.000 --> 17:04.520]  And I like to say, there's never an intelligence failure without a preceding and accompanying policy failure.
[17:05.080 --> 17:08.820]  So here's the slide on intelligence, and then I have another one on policy failures.
[17:09.640 --> 17:11.040]  Our satellites went deaf.
[17:11.740 --> 17:23.840]  Just like Reagan blew the fact that we were listening to the Politburo cell phones, and they went silent the next day, a U.S. senator blew the fact that we were listening to Bin Laden's satellite phone calls to his mother and others.
[17:23.840 --> 17:26.560]  He went off the air immediately.
[17:27.560 --> 17:29.240]  Our spies are incompetent.
[17:29.980 --> 17:36.860]  Robert Baer has written the two definitive books on the failure of spying in relation to Saudi Arabia and the Arabs.
[17:37.300 --> 17:43.660]  And in his second book, he also focuses on the fact that we also refused to do open source information collection.
[17:43.940 --> 17:51.260]  And we refused to actually try and understand anything internal to Saudi Arabia, believing that the Saudis would tell us what we needed to know.
[17:51.700 --> 17:52.860]  How dumb is that?
[17:53.520 --> 17:56.120]  The FBI is still in the pencil and paper mode.
[17:56.280 --> 18:02.440]  Roughly 80 to 85 percent of what your U.S. intelligence community knows is in paper and pencil.
[18:03.080 --> 18:04.700]  It's in hard copy files.
[18:04.800 --> 18:06.000]  It hasn't been digitized.
[18:06.100 --> 18:07.800]  It is extremely difficult to get at.
[18:08.020 --> 18:09.440]  We'll talk about that more later.
[18:09.720 --> 18:11.140]  We don't do translation.
[18:11.500 --> 18:19.320]  The FBI captured an entire apartment building full of Arabic documents after the first 9-11 bombing, the car bombing that failed.
[18:19.780 --> 18:21.020]  They didn't translate them.
[18:21.520 --> 18:26.940]  There was one guy in the New York office that spoke Arabic and he felt he was much too important to be doing that kind of stuff.
[18:27.580 --> 18:29.480]  And there was no money for translating.
[18:29.700 --> 18:34.180]  And the FBI culture is inherently against sharing anything with anybody.
[18:34.180 --> 18:35.140]  Okay?
[18:36.120 --> 18:47.960]  So, I think the CIA is really the most to blame for failing to penetrate and notice the fact that in 1989, the Saudi government told bin Laden to go radicalize all Muslims everywhere.
[18:47.960 --> 18:53.680]  But the FBI has blown it in several considerable ways, including turning away two walk-ins.
[18:54.160 --> 18:58.880]  One in Orlando, Florida, and one in Newark, New Jersey, both of whom had names of the hijackers.
[18:59.060 --> 19:04.180]  And the FBI mentality is such that these were what we call virgin terrorists.
[19:04.180 --> 19:08.820]  They weren't on anybody's database, so the FBI came back and said, well, these guys aren't in our records.
[19:09.380 --> 19:10.860]  You must be a bullshit artist.
[19:11.000 --> 19:11.460]  Get out of here.
[19:12.580 --> 19:14.040]  This is the FBI mentality.
[19:15.200 --> 19:21.920]  Someone tries to report 9-11, and they don't have the names of the new guys that are going to do it, and they throw the source out of the office.
[19:22.680 --> 19:25.320]  That is just utterly amazing to me.
[19:26.560 --> 19:28.900]  Processing, there's no single place where it all comes together.
[19:29.140 --> 19:34.240]  There are all these stovepipes, all these straws, all this inability to share, no standards for...
[19:34.240 --> 19:37.200]  There's no XML, RSS in the intelligence community.
[19:37.980 --> 19:40.980]  There's no security attributes and stuff you can put together.
[19:41.240 --> 19:44.520]  A lot of these people are still using 1970s computers.
[19:45.360 --> 19:45.840]  Okay?
[19:46.220 --> 19:47.820]  I mean, this is the Stone Age.
[19:48.400 --> 20:01.880]  In fact, John Perry Barlow, who's a friend, I brought him in, and Howard Rheingold in 1992, he did a thing for Forbes in which he said, if you want to see what the Soviet Union computing environment looks like, visit the CIA.
[20:05.620 --> 20:06.020]  Okay?
[20:06.160 --> 20:07.160]  Now, analysis...
[20:07.560 --> 20:10.780]  I was privy to the results of a study done immediately after 9-11.
[20:11.480 --> 20:17.540]  We collected two-thirds of the dots, and we spilled half of those dots on the way to the analysts.
[20:17.540 --> 20:25.700]  And with the remaining half, the third of the dots that the analysts got, they basically couldn't connect them.
[20:25.880 --> 20:27.180]  They weren't language qualified.
[20:27.180 --> 20:28.480]  They didn't understand culture.
[20:28.600 --> 20:29.620]  They didn't understand history.
[20:29.820 --> 20:37.500]  And I want to point out to you that two years prior to 9-11, Yosef Bodansky wrote a book called Bin Laden, The Man Who Declared War in America.
[20:38.700 --> 20:42.420]  Nobody wanted to read or buy that book until after 9-11.
[20:43.300 --> 20:51.180]  In 1994, Steve Emerson went out to all the mosques in America and did covert videotapes of imans on U.S.
[20:51.260 --> 20:52.880]  soil calling for the death of U.S.
[20:52.980 --> 20:53.380]  citizens.
[20:54.040 --> 20:58.020]  And it was a PBS broadcast that was widely ignored.
[20:58.020 --> 20:59.020]  Okay?
[20:59.620 --> 21:08.780]  We knew more about Bin Laden and terrorism on August 6th from open sources than the intelligence community knew from closed sources.
[21:09.580 --> 21:18.440]  But sock puppet got the sock puppet brief from classified sources that was completely ignorable.
[21:19.540 --> 21:20.580]  And then liaison.
[21:20.880 --> 21:21.720]  Business as usual.
[21:22.480 --> 21:27.140]  Your government is excessively dependent on foreign liaison.
[21:28.000 --> 21:31.480]  We allow other governments to tell us what they want us to know.
[21:31.600 --> 21:35.840]  And we are so naive that we really think that's good enough.
[21:36.560 --> 21:41.440]  And it's even worse than that because I don't think we need to steal secrets against other governments by and large.
[21:41.680 --> 21:43.780]  I think it's governments against gangs now.
[21:43.900 --> 21:44.760]  That's World War III.
[21:44.760 --> 21:49.580]  But we're so naive, we're not even willing to invest the money in open sources of information.
[21:50.120 --> 21:51.840]  And finally, our mindset is modeled.
[21:51.980 --> 21:52.640]  Now, policy.
[21:53.200 --> 21:56.820]  I guess I've done some of these things in the earlier slide.
[21:57.320 --> 21:59.420]  But policy was the oblivious frog.
[22:00.320 --> 22:14.680]  One of the reasons that I think national security is not playing as big in this run-up to the election is that Bill Clinton had the intellectual runts of the 21st century running his national security policy.
[22:15.880 --> 22:21.260]  Madeleine Albright deliberately repressed reports on terrorism getting worse under Clinton.
[22:21.920 --> 22:24.960]  She did not want the American public to worry.
[22:24.960 --> 22:35.920]  And unfortunately, the American public wasn't willing to notice the barracks bombing in Saudi Arabia, two embassy bombings, the assassination outside CIA, the coal.
[22:36.480 --> 22:39.660]  These were very serious, significant events.
[22:39.660 --> 22:47.080]  And we understood that suicide was an emerging method.
[22:47.420 --> 22:56.300]  And we actually had Senators Hart and Rudman say that hijacking aircraft as flying bombs is a viable means of surprise, attack.
[22:57.000 --> 22:59.320]  But the policy world didn't want to hear it.
[22:59.880 --> 23:01.880]  Dick Clark's book is a fine book.
[23:02.020 --> 23:04.620]  There are a lot of people in the military that hate Dick Clark.
[23:04.620 --> 23:07.320]  There are a lot of people in the intelligence community that hate Dick Clark.
[23:09.200 --> 23:10.680]  I see good in everybody.
[23:11.060 --> 23:15.980]  And I think Dick Clark is 80% right in his book and his concerns.
[23:16.100 --> 23:18.180]  And by the way, his book also has some success stories.
[23:18.500 --> 23:20.960]  Did you know there's a nuclear bomb in the middle of Atlanta?
[23:21.960 --> 23:24.420]  It's the Georgia University nuclear plant.
[23:25.120 --> 23:30.100]  Okay, Dick Clark and one of his people pointed this out to the FBI in the run-up to the Atlanta games.
[23:31.260 --> 23:34.120]  And a lot of good things happened in Atlanta security.
[23:34.120 --> 23:35.800]  This is not all negative.
[23:36.840 --> 23:41.140]  But we accepted all of this and we accepted the lack of action by other nations.
[23:41.320 --> 23:42.980]  Now this is the global processing failure.
[23:43.660 --> 23:46.340]  This is actually a CIA chart that was given to me.
[23:46.800 --> 23:51.260]  It was made in the late 1990s and it evaluated the cost versus the satisfaction.
[23:51.600 --> 23:59.220]  For measurements and signatures, intelligence, imagery intelligence, signals intelligence, state, clandestine intelligence, human, and then OSINT.
[24:00.540 --> 24:01.960]  I added the bullseye.
[24:02.400 --> 24:11.700]  There is no one place in the U.S. government where this all comes together and you can do a mind map, brimstone, elucidon visualization of this stuff.
[24:12.600 --> 24:16.520]  And to the extent that people are doing visualizations, it's fat fingering eye too.
[24:17.320 --> 24:18.260]  Doesn't cut it.
[24:18.260 --> 24:19.340]  Okay?
[24:19.520 --> 24:24.060]  By and large, our visualization programs are retarded and way too expensive.
[24:24.940 --> 24:26.480]  Now this is the real world.
[24:27.560 --> 24:36.860]  In 2002, which is the last year for which I have the stats for everything, there were 23 low intensity conflicts killing over a thousand people each between states.
[24:39.120 --> 24:46.960]  79 conflicts between states killing fewer than a thousand people and 175 violent political conflicts internal to states.
[24:48.980 --> 24:52.960]  There were 18 genocide campaigns going on in 2002.
[24:53.360 --> 24:56.740]  And if you really want to get into genocide, I will tell you two things.
[24:56.900 --> 25:00.660]  First, the Holocaust Museum pisses me off because it only has one Holocaust.
[25:01.580 --> 25:02.020]  Okay?
[25:02.380 --> 25:04.780]  There have actually been 72 holocausts.
[25:05.260 --> 25:07.620]  And there are 18 of them going on right now.
[25:07.980 --> 25:11.880]  And I think we need to understand that genocide is not exclusively jewish.
[25:13.080 --> 25:15.360]  It is actually an international problem.
[25:15.660 --> 25:19.300]  And we tend to ignore the black genocides and that troubles me also.
[25:20.720 --> 25:25.920]  Dr. Greg Stanton, genocidewatch.com, is the living authority on all of this.
[25:26.020 --> 25:27.480]  I encourage you to visit his website.
[25:27.480 --> 25:31.220]  And he talks about how all genocides are predictable.
[25:32.120 --> 25:37.680]  There are the eight stages of genocide, including the early stages when you vilify people.
[25:38.040 --> 25:44.480]  And you kind of begin the propaganda of setting the stage for killing these alien intruders.
[25:46.180 --> 25:47.820]  Genocide is preventable.
[25:47.980 --> 25:50.760]  We've chosen not to prevent it in too many cases.
[25:50.920 --> 25:53.960]  I just finished reviewing General Dallieri's book in Rwanda.
[25:54.480 --> 26:07.860]  Eight nations, I think it was eight nations, including Belgium and the United States, explicitly said that saving the lives of hundreds of thousands of Rwandas was not worth one single additional Western life to be risked.
[26:08.100 --> 26:09.160]  That is a travesty.
[26:09.620 --> 26:12.420]  That is a loss of humanity on a scale beyond comprehension.
[26:13.440 --> 26:15.060]  We're going to run out of water.
[26:15.920 --> 26:20.140]  This is the world of water.
[26:21.060 --> 26:32.880]  And you'll note that the water scarcity coincides with the ethnic fault lines between Europe and Muslim North Arab, Arabia, and between Russia and China.
[26:34.060 --> 26:36.360]  Other global threats to local survival.
[26:36.520 --> 26:38.220]  My wife calls me gloom and doom, by the way.
[26:39.760 --> 26:41.400]  This is my cheerful brief.
[26:43.100 --> 26:48.020]  Other threats to global survival include complex emergencies involving 32 countries.
[26:48.180 --> 26:49.460]  These are called failed states.
[26:50.500 --> 26:54.020]  Millions and millions of displaced refugees in 66 countries.
[26:54.020 --> 26:58.920]  With all of the attendant crime, corruption, and so on, disease that comes with that.
[26:59.700 --> 27:01.480]  Starvation in 33 countries.
[27:02.080 --> 27:04.920]  Modern plagues in 59 countries and rising.
[27:05.160 --> 27:08.100]  I mean, we're talking Ebola reaching Kansas a couple of years ago.
[27:08.360 --> 27:15.100]  In fact, I had a TV marathon as I was trying to rest and saw the hot zone again, which was lots of fun.
[27:16.300 --> 27:17.460]  Child soldiers.
[27:18.400 --> 27:22.000]  I have two and a half teenagers.
[27:22.380 --> 27:31.560]  And I finally understand that they don't have this responsible node that distinguishes between killing people with a real gun and video games.
[27:32.680 --> 27:34.580]  Child soldiers are vicious.
[27:35.580 --> 27:37.520]  Child soldiers are dangerous.
[27:37.520 --> 27:40.640]  And if a child is a soldier, then something has broken.
[27:41.120 --> 27:44.820]  We have water scarcity, ethnic conflict, resource wars, corruption.
[27:45.380 --> 27:46.500]  Corruption and censorship.
[27:46.680 --> 27:48.820]  That's what collective intelligence defeats.
[27:49.520 --> 27:52.500]  And I love the hacker activism and this whole concept.
[27:52.620 --> 27:53.740]  We have to get informed.
[27:54.920 --> 28:00.920]  Now, when I brief generals in England and other places, I always say asymmetric war really stands for, gee, I wish I'd thought of that first.
[28:01.660 --> 28:02.140]  Okay?
[28:02.580 --> 28:07.260]  Because what it is is an out-of-the-box, usually one-of thing.
[28:08.360 --> 28:20.040]  Bin Laden for $500,000 has cost us $100 billion in actual lost revenue and has increased the deficit of the United States by perhaps a trillion.
[28:20.640 --> 28:24.200]  Well, $7 trillion is cumulative, but let's give him credit for $1 trillion.
[28:25.140 --> 28:29.100]  Jesus, $500,000 invested, $1 trillion deficit.
[28:29.220 --> 28:30.740]  That's a hell of a return on investment.
[28:31.080 --> 28:32.600]  He can win that war.
[28:33.640 --> 28:36.880]  He can nickel and dime us to death because we're being stupid.
[28:37.040 --> 28:38.180]  And we'll get into that later.
[28:39.360 --> 28:41.380]  These are the vulnerabilities on the home front.
[28:41.520 --> 28:45.480]  I actually created this slide in the mid-1990s and no one wanted to listen to me then either.
[28:48.360 --> 28:50.080]  9-11, I know, you guys.
[28:50.240 --> 28:51.400]  I mean, but you're a cheap date.
[28:54.980 --> 28:55.940]  No, I love you.
[28:56.060 --> 28:56.900]  Thank you for listening.
[28:56.900 --> 28:59.720]  It truly warms my heart to be here.
[29:01.060 --> 29:02.900]  But, you know, these are the problems.
[29:03.820 --> 29:08.300]  Tunnels, pipelines, bridges, dams, towers, power, financial, comms, transportation.
[29:08.600 --> 29:12.280]  I mean, someone was telling me there are two main power lines coming down from Canada.
[29:12.400 --> 29:13.680]  Either one is a cinch to cut.
[29:15.180 --> 29:20.320]  A friend of mine, General Minahan, did a study of Falcon Air Force Base.
[29:20.320 --> 29:22.880]  He took it down, only attacking off-base points.
[29:23.340 --> 29:26.920]  All he had to touch was the water and the power and the other stuff coming in from off-base.
[29:27.060 --> 29:27.700]  They were out of Schlitz.
[29:28.420 --> 29:30.820]  Economic blahs, we've seen what 9-11 did to us.
[29:30.900 --> 29:31.500]  Data corruption.
[29:31.640 --> 29:32.620]  You want to hurt a capitalist?
[29:33.300 --> 29:34.460]  Don't bomb his house.
[29:34.820 --> 29:36.180]  Move his decimal point.
[29:38.600 --> 29:39.040]  Okay?
[29:39.320 --> 29:40.340]  And then public health.
[29:40.680 --> 29:46.700]  The day will come when 50 terrorists infected with smallpox voluntarily glad hand their way across America.
[29:47.320 --> 29:52.440]  And I really, I strive not to go too far on the hyperbole and stuff, but I'm trying to make a point here.
[29:53.000 --> 29:57.040]  This country has not invested in public health in the last 15 to 20 years.
[29:57.640 --> 30:02.020]  Laurie Garrett wrote a wonderful book called Betrayal of Trust, The Global Collapse of Public Health.
[30:02.120 --> 30:04.580]  We suck in terms of this.
[30:04.660 --> 30:12.300]  And what's happening is that diseases are migrating from animals to humans, and diseases are meeting up in common hosts and mutating.
[30:12.800 --> 30:13.280]  Okay?
[30:13.560 --> 30:18.600]  So just in the last couple of months, we've had bird flu, monkey pox, you know, a whole bunch of things.
[30:19.960 --> 30:22.180]  This stuff is getting very, very scary.
[30:22.580 --> 30:28.280]  The day will come when airplanes and offices have to guarantee the security of their air.
[30:29.240 --> 30:29.720]  Okay?
[30:30.640 --> 30:32.660]  It's probably 10 to 15 years away.
[30:32.860 --> 30:37.840]  But someone is going to pay a premium one of these days for guaranteed clean, uncontaminated air.
[30:37.840 --> 30:41.300]  Or we're going to be walking around with these little nostril masks.
[30:42.740 --> 30:43.960]  So what has changed?
[30:44.260 --> 30:50.420]  What's changed is it's no longer about a heavy metal military kicking ass over there to be watched on the nightly news.
[30:50.720 --> 30:51.800]  It's here at home.
[30:52.580 --> 30:54.160]  It's not state on state.
[30:54.160 --> 30:54.980]  It's individual.
[30:55.680 --> 30:57.440]  It's distributed net war.
[30:58.200 --> 30:59.540]  And it's here at home.
[30:59.800 --> 31:01.020]  And guess what?
[31:01.020 --> 31:03.200]  The government can't protect you.
[31:04.560 --> 31:06.160]  Only you can protect you.
[31:07.500 --> 31:10.500]  This is one of the early things on taking down the West.
[31:11.120 --> 31:17.320]  This draws heavily on Peter Black's Wired magazine article and work that I've done with Winn Schwartau and others.
[31:17.920 --> 31:20.960]  Federal Reserve is down to one hot computer, one cold backup.
[31:21.580 --> 31:22.520]  Internet switches.
[31:22.700 --> 31:23.240]  There are two.
[31:23.380 --> 31:24.280]  MAE West, MAE East.
[31:25.280 --> 31:26.320]  Satellite downlinks.
[31:26.320 --> 31:28.340]  Most satellite downlinks for the U.S. government are within an anti-tank distance from the road.
[31:33.080 --> 31:34.280]  From outside the wire.
[31:35.440 --> 31:39.040]  And when NSA lost its satellite for three days through its own...
[31:39.040 --> 31:40.600]  By the way, I really want to emphasize this.
[31:40.660 --> 31:43.240]  If you didn't hear this this morning, we don't need terrorists to screw us up.
[31:43.300 --> 31:44.020]  We're doing it ourself.
[31:46.040 --> 31:48.160]  I mean, Bin Laden is just the icing on the cake.
[31:49.500 --> 31:56.540]  The crap that corporations are allowing Bill Gates and others to get away with is treason.
[31:57.380 --> 31:59.940]  We are buying shitty stuff.
[32:07.310 --> 32:10.990]  Gates doesn't know this, but if I'm ever president, I'm nationalizing Microsoft.
[32:13.670 --> 32:17.290]  And his ass will be in jail until he agrees to settle for one billion.
[32:19.330 --> 32:20.870]  And then physical targets.
[32:21.030 --> 32:22.370]  You know, this is not about cyber war.
[32:22.630 --> 32:25.410]  There are lots of physical places where we can be hurt.
[32:25.970 --> 32:26.910]  Alaska pipeline.
[32:27.450 --> 32:32.490]  In fact, in Arizona, a gas pipeline blew and people were back in line for gasoline.
[32:32.890 --> 32:35.050]  You know, all of these pipelines are so vulnerable.
[32:35.550 --> 32:38.770]  Panama Canal, 35% of our hard goods.
[32:39.310 --> 32:40.090]  Telephone switches.
[32:40.290 --> 32:43.830]  There are a lot of police stations that haven't changed the original password.
[32:44.450 --> 32:47.350]  So it's real easy to go in and say, hey, Bubba's...
[32:47.350 --> 32:48.330]  Actually, you don't tell them.
[32:48.410 --> 32:55.470]  You go in and you make sure that every phone in the detective division also is recorded at that really small apartment down the street.
[32:56.830 --> 32:58.890]  They don't know that there's a back door.
[32:59.170 --> 33:00.650]  I mean, it's just amazing to me.
[33:01.030 --> 33:02.150]  You know that, of course.
[33:04.210 --> 33:04.610]  Cables.
[33:04.890 --> 33:06.830]  We have these big signs that say, cut here.
[33:08.310 --> 33:08.870]  You know?
[33:09.050 --> 33:11.230]  I mean, we're literally pointing all of this stuff out.
[33:11.230 --> 33:12.310]  And then dams, levees.
[33:12.450 --> 33:18.250]  I mean, New Orleans is toast if an oil service vehicle happens to explode next to the levee.
[33:18.610 --> 33:20.470]  I think we need to talk about these things.
[33:20.590 --> 33:20.970]  Tunnels.
[33:21.250 --> 33:22.570]  Tunnels scare the shit out of me.
[33:23.550 --> 33:24.390]  So where are we?
[33:24.450 --> 33:30.050]  We have four different threats to America that require four completely different security approaches.
[33:30.050 --> 33:32.050]  The old big war.
[33:32.270 --> 33:33.130]  Gang war.
[33:33.410 --> 33:34.610]  Then the poor.
[33:34.750 --> 33:36.630]  The poor have legitimate grievances.
[33:37.470 --> 33:39.810]  We invaded Haiti to keep them there.
[33:40.550 --> 33:41.070]  Okay?
[33:41.410 --> 33:44.570]  And yet, ten years after leaving Haiti, we still haven't built Route 9.
[33:45.210 --> 33:57.190]  In Afghanistan, after all the hullabaloo about building the road and restoring the economy from Kabul to Kandahar to Herat, we ended up with one inch of asphalt to pretend that we had done the road.
[33:57.430 --> 33:57.870]  Okay?
[33:57.990 --> 33:58.670]  This is bullshit.
[33:58.970 --> 34:02.190]  It should not be escaping the notice of the public.
[34:02.330 --> 34:05.550]  The media sucks at doing constructive criticism.
[34:12.110 --> 34:16.210]  So, with the exception of Seymour Hirsch and Robert Young Pelton.
[34:16.710 --> 34:18.510]  And on a good day, Tom Friedman.
[34:18.970 --> 34:19.490]  What?
[34:20.550 --> 34:21.850]  Yeah, I love Pelton.
[34:21.910 --> 34:23.430]  He's spoken at my conference several times.
[34:23.430 --> 34:24.690]  He is absolutely the best.
[34:24.990 --> 34:28.230]  And for a good time, read The World's Most Dangerous Places.
[34:28.530 --> 34:31.130]  And he's got a website, comebackalive.com.
[34:31.670 --> 34:34.770]  No, Robert is one of the guys I really like.
[34:34.770 --> 34:41.130]  Now, I did a crosswalk of all this conflict I've just talked about, against how the Pentagon is actually spending your taxpayer dollar.
[34:41.430 --> 34:42.510]  I have bad news.
[34:43.470 --> 34:49.210]  Not only are they transferring money from your pocket to corporation pockets, but it's only useful 10% of the time.
[34:50.230 --> 34:54.750]  The other 90% of the time, everything the Pentagon is buying is completely irrelevant.
[34:55.050 --> 34:57.770]  And is preventing us from making other investments.
[34:58.470 --> 34:58.950]  Okay?
[34:59.130 --> 35:11.250]  Such as, if I were advising a president, I would still spend $500 billion a year on national security, but I would take big war down by 50%.
[35:11.890 --> 35:13.670]  $250 billion is still a lot of money.
[35:13.730 --> 35:20.170]  We're spending as much money on our military as the next 25 countries put together, including Russia, China, India, and Pakistan.
[35:20.670 --> 35:21.150]  Okay?
[35:21.290 --> 35:22.430]  This makes no sense to me.
[35:22.670 --> 35:23.970]  It's money badly spent.
[35:25.170 --> 35:39.150]  I would increase Special Operations Command to $75 billion, or 15%, and I would add a white hat capability to deliver food, water, and medicine in extremists, under combat conditions.
[35:39.750 --> 35:42.430]  General Zinni's book with Tom Clancy...
[35:42.430 --> 35:49.090]  I stopped reading Clancy long ago, but with Zinni's name on the book, I bought it, and it was great.
[35:49.090 --> 35:49.790]  I reviewed it.
[35:50.310 --> 35:54.910]  Zinni has learned that the fastest way to stop violence is to deliver food.
[35:55.730 --> 35:56.330]  The U.S.
[35:56.450 --> 35:57.810]  government hasn't figured that out yet.
[35:58.670 --> 35:59.110]  Okay?
[35:59.270 --> 35:59.610]  The U.S.
[35:59.930 --> 36:02.370]  government does not believe in delivering food or sewing machines.
[36:02.510 --> 36:03.770]  They just like to deliver bullets.
[36:04.230 --> 36:05.950]  The problem is they don't know who to kill.
[36:07.510 --> 36:09.050]  And we don't do man hunts well.
[36:09.850 --> 36:11.170]  Now, St. Peace...
[36:11.170 --> 36:14.150]  I really had high hopes for Colin Powell.
[36:14.330 --> 36:17.510]  And I have to tell you, I think he uncle-tomed himself into obscurity.
[36:18.090 --> 36:20.030]  The man really betrayed us all.
[36:23.790 --> 36:30.270]  I wanted Colin Powell to get $100 billion a year to run peace war.
[36:30.590 --> 36:34.490]  And to actually be good at going out there with state...
[36:34.490 --> 36:36.230]  USIA, we should reconstitute it.
[36:36.290 --> 36:38.830]  The Peace Corps times five, economic aid.
[36:38.830 --> 36:42.130]  Yesterday morning I talked about what $100 million can buy.
[36:42.730 --> 36:47.870]  $100 million can buy a navy ship of war with all of its ammunition.
[36:48.150 --> 36:51.010]  Or it can buy an army brigade with its tanks and artillery.
[36:51.350 --> 36:53.050]  Or it can buy 1,000 diplomats.
[36:53.070 --> 36:54.710]  Or it can buy 10,000 Peace Corps workers.
[36:54.810 --> 37:02.310]  Or it can buy a water desalination plant that can desalinate 100 million cubic meters of water a year in the Middle East.
[37:02.610 --> 37:06.510]  Or it can buy one day of war in the Middle East over water.
[37:06.510 --> 37:10.010]  Okay, Israel, to take one simple mindless example.
[37:10.390 --> 37:18.370]  Israeli agriculture is producing 3% of Israel's gross domestic product and consuming 50% of the water that it's stealing from the Arabs.
[37:19.310 --> 37:21.070]  This is not smart.
[37:21.810 --> 37:27.130]  This is extremely selfish and it's extremely destabilizing to the entire region.
[37:27.130 --> 37:30.690]  We need a regional water authority for the Middle East.
[37:30.910 --> 37:33.870]  And we need a demilitarized zone with the Palestinians.
[37:34.070 --> 37:39.170]  And we actually have to create two entire new generations that live in peace from kindergarten upwards.
[37:39.730 --> 37:44.530]  The Israelis and the Palestinians that are alive today do not know the concept of peace.
[37:44.530 --> 37:46.210]  They're incapable of executing it.
[37:46.830 --> 37:55.390]  And then finally, here at home, we need to really put money into education, public health, port security is a nightmare, borders, and then intelligence.
[37:55.610 --> 37:58.690]  Citizens have to know who to call and then they have to be listened to when they do call.
[38:00.150 --> 38:02.830]  We're in trouble because the public is tuned out.
[38:03.450 --> 38:09.350]  I guarantee you we will have one or two more 9-11s in America before the public takes this seriously.
[38:10.590 --> 38:14.010]  I wrote a book on this slide, The New Craft of Intelligence.
[38:15.870 --> 38:16.710]  The U.S.
[38:16.850 --> 38:22.730]  government has no idea what other governments have said in the last 200 years on any given issue.
[38:23.370 --> 38:25.970]  We simply don't have a historical database.
[38:26.450 --> 38:32.270]  And one of my highest priorities is to create a digital historical database of public statements by other governments.
[38:32.450 --> 38:38.270]  So, for example, on the Spratly Islands, I want to have a website and I click on it and I issue Spratly Islands.
[38:38.390 --> 38:43.910]  I see what the Chinese have said, what the Filipinos have said, what the Vietnamese have said, what the Australians have said.
[38:44.050 --> 38:52.010]  And then I can click on a different view and for each country I can see past, current, near future, far future, estimated, right?
[38:52.070 --> 38:54.470]  We can do that today with the technology we have.
[38:54.470 --> 39:00.170]  We simply don't have the political will to be serious about substantive information.
[39:00.650 --> 39:03.410]  Global coverage, you can't do it alone, you have to have teams.
[39:03.710 --> 39:10.050]  National intelligence, I've realized, I've had my aha experience, that national intelligence merely means all of us.
[39:10.130 --> 39:11.330]  It doesn't mean just the spies.
[39:11.590 --> 39:15.770]  And we still need spies in secrecy, but they have to be narrowly focused and they have to be successful.
[39:16.370 --> 39:22.770]  These are the seven tribes and what I'll probably do at midnight is stop and we'll have a break.
[39:24.110 --> 39:27.990]  Actually, we'll take a break every hour because it's hard to get in and out.
[39:28.170 --> 39:34.970]  But at midnight, I'll put these pins out and the military police and national guys have to come see me personally.
[39:36.270 --> 39:40.730]  But the rest of you can kind of sort through and just be on your honor to just take one or two pins.
[39:42.330 --> 39:43.530]  I'm going to skip this one.
[39:46.940 --> 39:54.660]  If I had been doing Afghanistan and Iraq, Iraq, Afghanistan would have been a Berlin airlift of food, water, and medicine immediately.
[39:55.280 --> 39:59.460]  And I would have been focusing very much on eradicating the opium crop.
[40:00.080 --> 40:00.220]  Okay?
[40:00.460 --> 40:01.060]  Under U.S.
[40:01.280 --> 40:05.340]  administration, the opium crop has tripled in Afghanistan.
[40:05.340 --> 40:06.500]  Good news for some of you.
[40:07.280 --> 40:10.500]  Bad news for the rest of us.
[40:10.760 --> 40:11.240]  Okay?
[40:11.380 --> 40:12.220]  This is not smart.
[40:12.760 --> 40:14.340]  Iraq should have been a Marshall plant.
[40:14.660 --> 40:20.640]  As we roll those tanks in, we should have been rolling food and water and medicine and put out an announcement.
[40:20.640 --> 40:22.260]  It says, folks, this is a simple deal.
[40:22.440 --> 40:25.220]  We will bring in two water trucks for every tank we take out.
[40:25.280 --> 40:27.260]  And the minute you fire on us, they stop coming.
[40:27.880 --> 40:28.280]  Okay?
[40:28.700 --> 40:30.200]  I mean, we're just not thinking.
[40:30.360 --> 40:32.360]  I mean, Rumsfeld, all those guys overruled.
[40:32.380 --> 40:33.680]  And I really want to emphasize this.
[40:34.300 --> 40:39.500]  Your military intelligence and diplomatic professionals are, by and large, good-hearted, well-meaning people.
[40:39.860 --> 40:41.340]  And they're serious professionals.
[40:41.340 --> 40:44.080]  And they were overruled by the political mafia.
[40:44.740 --> 40:45.140]  Okay?
[40:45.360 --> 40:48.400]  They were specifically, as my 14-year-old would say, dissed.
[40:49.600 --> 40:53.040]  And unfortunately, only a handful of them resigned in protest.
[40:53.860 --> 41:00.700]  The entire Joint Chiefs of Staff should have resigned on the steps of Capitol Hill and made it a media event.
[41:01.120 --> 41:03.900]  We failed that big integrity test.
[41:08.790 --> 41:14.170]  These are the eight points that I think any OSINT working group should establish for any issue it cares about.
[41:15.290 --> 41:20.230]  We used to think that a weekly open source review was the starting point, I mean, the end point.
[41:20.330 --> 41:21.670]  And that's where CIA still is.
[41:22.090 --> 41:24.270]  But we've actually found it's the beginning point.
[41:24.970 --> 41:27.950]  That weekly review leads to an expert forum discussion.
[41:27.990 --> 41:32.550]  And you don't get to open your mouth in an expert forum until you've passed all of the distance learning.
[41:32.890 --> 41:34.990]  Or been certified by a current master.
[41:35.490 --> 41:37.970]  Because the thing that wastes all of our time are the newbies.
[41:37.970 --> 41:40.150]  Saying, how do I do this?
[41:40.630 --> 41:40.850]  Okay?
[41:41.510 --> 41:43.410]  So, newbies have to pass distance learning.
[41:44.290 --> 41:45.250]  Virtual libraries.
[41:45.490 --> 41:46.750]  So, we only collect stuff once.
[41:46.910 --> 41:47.410]  And then we...
[41:47.410 --> 41:48.530]  Whether it's distributed or not.
[41:48.650 --> 41:52.790]  But we have a centralized Dewey Decimal catalog for the stuff that's available on the web.
[41:53.230 --> 41:53.710]  Securely.
[41:53.950 --> 41:56.450]  With, you know, distinguishing who can access what.
[41:57.970 --> 41:58.910]  Shared calendar.
[41:59.490 --> 42:00.470]  So that...
[42:00.470 --> 42:01.450]  Take water as an example.
[42:01.630 --> 42:05.550]  Any conference anywhere in the world that has water as a topic of discussion.
[42:05.550 --> 42:09.850]  We should have somebody in that town that can go to that conference and write a trip report.
[42:10.170 --> 42:11.810]  And put it into circulation.
[42:12.430 --> 42:15.050]  Of course, XML, RSS, the whole bit.
[42:15.610 --> 42:16.670]  And shared Rolodex.
[42:16.850 --> 42:18.790]  We should be working very fast beyond LinkedIn.
[42:20.030 --> 42:21.150]  I use LinkedIn.
[42:21.810 --> 42:23.630]  I'd love to see you guys all use it.
[42:23.750 --> 42:28.150]  Emmanuel should go to LinkedIn and broadcast this to 2600 and see what happens.
[42:30.270 --> 42:32.230]  But a shared Rolodex.
[42:32.450 --> 42:33.610]  A virtual budget.
[42:33.610 --> 42:36.010]  It turns out that we're all spending money for the same thing.
[42:36.830 --> 42:41.890]  The minute you start telling each other what you're spending money on, you discover enormous redundancies.
[42:42.230 --> 42:45.370]  Which means you've just doubled or tripled your de facto budget.
[42:45.630 --> 42:49.050]  If you're willing to work together to discuss how you're spending money.
[42:50.830 --> 42:54.290]  This is my vision for the future of public intelligence.
[42:55.710 --> 43:02.850]  Basically, I think we should all be paying some kind of subscription fee to cover what's important to us, but then agree to share it.
[43:02.910 --> 43:03.890]  That's kind of the weekly report.
[43:03.930 --> 43:05.390]  And a lot of that can be done by volunteers.
[43:06.170 --> 43:13.730]  Then there's partial sharing, such as a help desk, which keeps track of best sources, best prices, and so on, but doesn't tell you who's asking what.
[43:13.730 --> 43:16.930]  And then at the tribal level, experts on demand.
[43:16.930 --> 43:17.830]  That can be secret.
[43:17.910 --> 43:18.570]  No one else knows.
[43:18.750 --> 43:21.450]  And then at the top secret level, strategic forecasting.
[43:21.650 --> 43:26.250]  And this chart was created by Jan Herring, who is the father of business intelligence in the United States.
[43:27.370 --> 43:30.130]  These are some of the intelligence reforms that I'd go with.
[43:31.990 --> 43:39.810]  Believe it or not, DOD has over 2,000 databases and doesn't have data standards that allow it to link together.
[43:41.130 --> 43:52.130]  In 1988, when some of us were trying to get object-oriented programming and Unix off the ground in the intelligence community, DOD was still insisting that ADA was the standard language.
[43:54.570 --> 43:55.830]  It boggles the mind.
[43:58.010 --> 44:00.810]  I think that the CIA needs to refocus on analysis.
[44:01.110 --> 44:02.890]  NSA needs to refocus on processing.
[44:03.090 --> 44:05.150]  The NRO needs to refocus on collecting everything.
[44:05.730 --> 44:09.010]  We need a new clandestine service agency that the French can't find.
[44:10.950 --> 44:14.910]  I mean, our clandestine service is a joke today, and we'll have plenty of time for Q&A.
[44:15.370 --> 44:16.950]  And we need a new knowledge foundation.
[44:16.970 --> 44:28.770]  If I had $1.5 billion a year, in fact, if I had $125 million a year, going back into government, I could embarrass the intelligence community into rapid reform.
[44:29.290 --> 44:29.870]  Okay?
[44:30.150 --> 44:38.850]  And one of the things I said yesterday was that OSINT is the wedge in intelligence reform, in acquisition reform, and in governance reform.
[44:39.470 --> 44:43.770]  And so public intelligence is the wedge issue for changing our life for the better.
[44:44.150 --> 44:45.610]  Okay, that's the end of the first brief.
[44:46.710 --> 44:48.070]  Why don't we take a five-minute break?
[44:48.630 --> 44:50.570]  Anyone that wants to go to the bathroom or whatever, go.
[44:50.770 --> 44:52.890]  Anyone that wants to come up and get a pin early, come up.
[44:52.970 --> 44:55.570]  And what I'm going to do is load the brief, and I'll cheat you.
[44:55.650 --> 44:56.770]  I'll actually start in two minutes.
[45:01.330 --> 45:02.410]  How is this going?
[45:06.480 --> 45:07.040]  Okay.
[45:07.340 --> 45:08.260]  I'll tell you what.
[45:09.540 --> 45:10.760]  These are journalists.
[45:11.020 --> 45:11.820]  These are citizens.
[45:13.420 --> 45:13.980]  Business.
[45:15.780 --> 45:17.420]  Non-governmental organizations.
[45:17.680 --> 45:19.260]  Shout out, and someone can hand them.
[45:19.360 --> 45:19.740]  Police.
[45:21.340 --> 45:22.460]  No MI5.
[45:22.620 --> 45:23.040]  Police.
[45:23.380 --> 45:23.720]  You want one?
[45:23.920 --> 45:24.080]  Yes.
[45:24.360 --> 45:24.920]  Absolutely.
[45:25.080 --> 45:25.600]  My pleasure.
[45:27.380 --> 45:27.940]  Okay.
[45:28.580 --> 45:29.140]  Police.
[45:29.720 --> 45:30.280]  Okay.
[45:30.460 --> 45:30.960]  Here you go.
[45:31.720 --> 45:32.080]  Police.
[45:32.080 --> 45:33.780]  We've got military.
[45:34.980 --> 45:35.460]  Spies.
[45:36.900 --> 45:37.380]  Yes.
[45:37.720 --> 45:38.020]  No, no.
[45:38.160 --> 45:38.580]  I'm sorry.
[45:38.740 --> 45:40.940]  You've got to really be a spy and you can't break cover.
[45:41.480 --> 45:42.300]  What would you...
[45:42.300 --> 45:42.720]  Yeah.
[45:42.920 --> 45:43.060]  Here.
[45:43.200 --> 45:44.020]  I've got academic.
[45:44.180 --> 45:44.980]  Who wants academics?
[45:46.360 --> 45:46.720]  Academic.
[45:47.200 --> 45:47.440]  Okay.
[45:48.200 --> 45:49.060]  Who are the academics?
[45:53.580 --> 45:54.060]  Academic.
[45:54.880 --> 45:55.040]  Huh?
[45:55.840 --> 45:56.320]  Journalists?
[45:57.100 --> 45:57.460]  Business.
[45:57.720 --> 45:57.880]  Okay.
[45:58.020 --> 45:58.300]  Hang on.
[45:58.440 --> 45:58.820]  Where's business?
[46:03.820 --> 46:04.300]  Academic...
[46:04.300 --> 46:05.080]  Academic.
[46:07.760 --> 46:08.940]  I'm getting hit on journalists.
[46:09.180 --> 46:09.680]  You do want...
[46:09.680 --> 46:10.040]  Police.
[46:11.120 --> 46:11.200]  Okay.
[46:11.700 --> 46:11.920]  Police.
[46:15.660 --> 46:15.760]  Alright.
[46:15.880 --> 46:17.520]  Once you've got your pen, get out of the way.
[46:18.500 --> 46:18.980]  Shoot.
[46:19.080 --> 46:19.840]  This isn't working.
[46:20.840 --> 46:21.320]  Uh...
[46:22.700 --> 46:23.180]  Okay.
[46:23.360 --> 46:24.380]  So, where's my police guy?
[46:24.780 --> 46:24.880]  No.
[46:25.360 --> 46:26.060]  He's gone.
[46:26.300 --> 46:26.400]  Okay.
[46:26.660 --> 46:27.900]  One more business.
[46:28.380 --> 46:28.860]  Academic.
[46:29.040 --> 46:29.160]  Alright.
[46:30.540 --> 46:31.020]  Academic.
[46:32.900 --> 46:35.580]  I'll tell you what, you take care of academics, alright?
[46:35.760 --> 46:36.640]  One per person.
[46:37.060 --> 46:38.180]  Academics go over there.
[46:38.520 --> 46:39.540]  Business, where's business?
[46:39.640 --> 46:40.000]  Business.
[46:41.280 --> 46:42.080]  You take care of business.
[46:44.100 --> 46:46.580]  Alright, you stay close to me now.
[46:46.740 --> 46:47.520]  One per person.
[46:49.120 --> 46:53.760]  Military, non-governmental, police, police, nothing.
[46:56.660 --> 46:57.580]  You're academic?
[47:01.600 --> 47:02.680]  Only if you're a spy.
[47:03.360 --> 47:04.620]  I mean, really.
[47:04.880 --> 47:06.120]  It's not a collector's item.
[47:06.400 --> 47:07.440]  It's a bad...
[47:07.440 --> 47:08.340]  No, no questions.
[47:10.500 --> 47:11.060]  Business.
[47:11.620 --> 47:12.160]  Business.
[47:13.020 --> 47:13.880]  That's police.
[47:14.580 --> 47:15.880]  Where's the academic guy?
[47:16.740 --> 47:19.120]  Okay, where's the academic guy with the pins?
[47:19.800 --> 47:21.840]  Okay, the academic guy is back there.
[47:23.080 --> 47:24.540]  And who's got business?
[47:25.300 --> 47:26.360]  Business, right here.
[47:26.500 --> 47:27.740]  Okay, business right there.
[47:28.360 --> 47:29.320]  Okay, we're going to stop.
[47:30.760 --> 47:31.940]  Non-governmental organization.
[47:32.200 --> 47:33.260]  Non-profit do-gooder.
[47:34.180 --> 47:34.800]  Oh, what?
[47:34.900 --> 47:35.380]  Yes, I do.
[47:35.460 --> 47:36.400]  Where's the citizen bag?
[47:41.110 --> 47:44.990]  Alright, let's... there's citizens over there, academics here, business there.
[47:45.610 --> 47:47.890]  And we're going to start in one minute.
[47:48.450 --> 47:51.790]  And then you guys bring me back the bag, and then we'll do this again in an hour.
[47:52.750 --> 47:53.330]  What's that?
[47:53.450 --> 47:53.790]  Absolutely.
[47:57.590 --> 47:58.170]  Hold on.
[47:58.350 --> 48:00.090]  Let's do three militaries, and then I'm going to stop.
[48:00.210 --> 48:01.550]  You've got another presentation, right?
[48:01.970 --> 48:03.890]  Military, military, military.
[48:04.150 --> 48:05.130]  How many other militaries?
[48:11.200 --> 48:11.620]  Okay.
[48:11.620 --> 48:12.140]  All right.
[48:12.580 --> 48:15.080]  Comp, okay, NGO, and then we're going to stop.
[48:16.920 --> 48:17.840]  Okay, hold on.
[48:18.940 --> 48:20.300]  Let me stop now.
[48:20.460 --> 48:21.220]  Bring them back in.
[48:21.860 --> 48:22.720]  Bring them back in.
[48:22.720 --> 48:23.540]  Okay, we'll do this again.
[48:24.340 --> 48:25.280]  We'll do this again.
[48:25.900 --> 48:26.000]  Okay.
[48:27.600 --> 48:28.640]  Do you have all your bags?
[48:28.860 --> 48:29.500]  I think so.
[48:29.800 --> 48:30.100]  Count them.
[48:30.300 --> 48:34.240]  One, two, three, four, five, six, seven.
[48:34.340 --> 48:35.300]  One bag is out.
[48:36.480 --> 48:37.600]  One bag is out.
[48:39.540 --> 48:41.160]  All right, one bag is still out.
[48:42.940 --> 48:43.460]  Let me see.
[48:43.460 --> 48:48.400]  Citizen, business, police, national, military.
[48:49.080 --> 48:50.060]  Maybe I do have them.
[48:50.240 --> 48:50.700]  Oh, business.
[48:51.000 --> 48:51.100]  No?
[48:52.100 --> 48:53.100]  Yeah, we got it.
[48:54.620 --> 48:55.600]  That's military.
[48:56.420 --> 48:57.520]  What color is that?
[48:59.040 --> 49:00.000]  How many are there?
[49:00.140 --> 49:00.320]  Seven?
[49:00.840 --> 49:01.860]  Eight, actually.
[49:05.640 --> 49:07.120]  Five, six, seven.
[49:07.420 --> 49:08.980]  All right, one bag is missing.
[49:09.820 --> 49:10.540]  Let me see.
[49:10.700 --> 49:24.260]  Citizen, business, police, military, national, military, police, business, academia.
[49:24.840 --> 49:25.620]  Oh, journalists.
[49:25.800 --> 49:26.780]  Where's the journalist bag?
[49:26.960 --> 49:27.340]  Okay, good.
[49:27.380 --> 49:27.980]  Where'd you get that?
[49:28.220 --> 49:28.900]  I gave it to him.
[49:29.120 --> 49:29.580]  Yeah, good.
[49:30.060 --> 49:31.060]  All right, we're going to start again.
[49:31.980 --> 49:33.360]  Are your slides on your website?
[49:33.380 --> 49:33.740]  Yes.
[49:34.060 --> 49:35.680]  My slides are on my website.
[49:35.680 --> 49:35.820]  Are your website?
[49:36.120 --> 49:36.360]  Okay.