BILL GERTZ
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
September 10, 1999

[With Rowan Scarborough]

CROSSING THE LINE

China is still flying its warplanes close to the demarcation line separating China and Taiwan. Recently, the jets have begun crossing over the line, raising new fears of a military confrontation, defense officials tell us.

Over the weekend of Aug. 28, U.S. intelligence agencies reported that four Chinese F-7 fighters crossed six miles into the Taiwanese side of the line running down the midpoint between the mainland and the island.

It was the first penetration of the line by China since 2 F-7s flew within 25 miles of Taiwan on July 30.

Intelligence analysts suspect the Chinese warplanes were responding to Taiwanese fighter activities from Aug. 26 to Aug. 29, when several of the island's fighters flew 20 miles over the line.

Chinese jets began flying more defensive patrols in late August, the officials said. On Aug. 29, two pairs of F-7 Fishbeds began flying defensive patrols even closer to the line, prompting the Taiwanese to scramble their jets. On Aug. 31, at least four F-7s carried out what officials called "a show of force" against the island by closing to within 41 miles of Taiwan before turning back.

Officials fear the saber rattling could touch off a conflict if the Chinese and Taiwanese warplanes get trigger happy and exchange air-to-air missiles or that ground-based anti-aircraft missiles down one of the planes.

"When people start doing these things, sometimes people panic and make a mistake," said one official.

Asked about the fighter activity over the strait, Pentagon spokesman Kenneth Bacon said Tuesday that Chinese and Taiwanese flights are occurring at much higher rates than in the past. The Chinese "have been careful not to fly over the so-called center line down the middle of the strait," he said.

"They haven't flown over that line at all?" we asked.

"I didn't say they haven't flown over it at all," the spokesman said. "I've said they've been careful not to fly over it."

COUNT YOUR BLESSINGS

The commander of all Marine Corps forces in the Pacific is sounding the alarm on personnel shortages. It's not the infantry or logistics units Lt. Gen. Frank Libutti is worried about.

In a message to commanders, Gen. Libutti says the number of Navy priests has dropped sharply the last decade.

"While attention has focused recently on recruiting problems in the armed services, few people are aware of the challenge the chaplain corps is facing in meeting its goals," Gen. Libutti writes. "The shortage of Roman Catholic chaplains is particularly acute. For example, in 1989, there were 273 active-duty Navy Catholic chaplains serving in the sea service. Today, not owing to the drawdown, that number has dropped to 178. Unless we are willing to promote retention, we cannot complain that this year alone in my command we have had a net loss of three priests, representing 10 percent of our Catholic chaplains."

Gen. Libutti urged his commanders to approve orders for priests who want to attend an annual retreat and retention conference for Catholic chaplains on Jan. 31-Feb. 4 in North Palm Beach, Fla.

"Participation in such meetings has been shown to have a positive effect in promoting retention," the general said. "Just as I encourage married Marines to spend quality time with their families, you may want to grant your Catholic chaplains an annual opportunity for similar time with their 'family' of brother priests."

SHORT TAKES

* An intense debate has erupted inside the Army over "end strength" - the number of troops Congress authorizes for each service annually. Gen. Eric Shinseki, the Army chief of staff, wants an increase. His 480,000-soldier Army is stretched by a series of peace enforcement operations that have all but three of 10 active divisions either committed to a specific theater of war, conducting peacekeeping operations or resting after peacekeeping. Planners are considering an increase of 10,000 to 30,000 troops, but are wary of making an official request. This is because the Army already is having difficulty meeting recruiting goals, despite pumped-up bonuses and education benefits.

* The nonpartisan Rand Corp. is due to release a report today that calls on the Clinton administration to execute a major shift in U.S. policy toward China. Washington should switch from engagement to "congagement," says a Rand analyst, with its eyes always on the communist country's strategic military goals. "Congagement" is a word that describes combining the two policies of containment and engagement.

While noting that Beijing's defense spending still lags far behind U.S. budgets of $260 billion annually, the report says China has increased arms funds by 58 percent since 1991.

Under "congagement," the United States would continue economic and military ties. "However," says the report, "we would be less solicitous of Chinese sensitivities. . . . On military-to-military and economic relations, the United States would insist on reciprocity. When China behaves badly or threatens our interests, we must be prepared to respond."

"In 1992, then-candidate Clinton accused President Bush of being the 'puppet of Peking.' Now the shoe is on the other foot, and the same types of charges are being made against President Clinton."

The analysis by Zalmay Khalilzad, former assistant deputy undersecretary of defense for policy planning, is based on a two-year Rand study commissioned by the Air Force.

* A senior intelligence official told reporters yesterday that Pakistan has Chinese-made M-11 missiles. The admission contradicts State Department claims that the reports of M-11s in Pakistan are unconfirmed. The reason: U.S. economic sanctions must be imposed on China under U.S. anti-proliferation laws if M-11s were transferred. The State Department in the past has said only M-11 components were sold, not the entire missiles.

"It's not something new for intelligence to say that Pakistan has M-11 missiles," the senior official said.

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CIA reports ICBM threat will increase; Russia, China major menace to U.S.

The CIA said yesterday that missile threats to the United States are growing as Russia and China continue strategic weapons efforts and North Korea, Iran and Iraq seek long-range systems capable of reaching U.S. soil or troops abroad.

The missile danger will increase in the next 15 years and "emerging systems potentially can kill tens of thousands, even millions of Americans, depending on the type of warhead, the accuracy and the intended target," the agency said in an annual report.

"We project that over the next 15 years the United States most likely will face an ICBM threat from Russia, China and North Korea; probably from Iran; and possibly from Iraq," said a senior intelligence official about intercontinental ballistic missiles.

An unclassified summary of a national intelligence estimate on missile threats released by the CIA also says Chinese mobile missiles, including the new DF-31 tested last month, will contain smaller nuclear warheads that are "in part influenced by U.S. technology gained through espionage."

"We expect a test of a longer-range mobile ICBM within the next several years; it will be targeted primarily against the United States," the 16-page intelligence report said.

China is expected to increase the number of long-range missiles from about 20 today to between 30 and 100 by 2015.

The report concludes that "the probability that a weapon of mass destruction-armed missile will be used against U.S. forces or interests is higher today than during most of the Cold War."

"More nations now have longer-range missiles and weapons-of-mass-destruction warheads," the report states.

The report is likely to bolster arguments in favor of building a national missile defense.

President Clinton is opposed to deploying a national missile defense. However, in July he signed a bill making it U.S. policy to deploy a anti-missile system as soon as technologically possible. But the president also has said he is not bound to do so and will not decide on building a system of interceptors and radar until June 2000.

Of particular concern is North Korea, which is expected to test fire a new Taepo Dong-2 missile "at any time," the senior intelligence official told reporters during a briefing at CIA headquarters in Langley.

The official, who spoke on the condition he not be identified, said a Taepo Dong-2 missile will be considered ready for use after its first flight test. The missile could hit some or most of the United States with a nuclear, chemical or biological warhead depending on the number of its stages, he said.

The report stated that Russia's 1,000 strategic missiles with some 4,500 warheads are the prime nuclear missile threat. "Russia's forces will continue to be the most robust and lethal," the senior official said, "considerably more so than those of China and orders of magnitude more than those of emerging powers," the senior official said.

China is second and is building two road-mobile missiles and a submarine-launched missile. By 2015, Beijing is expected to field "10s of missiles targeted against the United States," the report said.

China does not have multiple-warhead missiles but could use the warhead on the new DF-31 for future missiles with multiple warheads.

The Chinese missile force is shifting from silo-based weapons to mobile systems that are "going to have small warheads and there are just going to be more of them . . . to hold a significant portion of our population at risk," the senior official said.

Asked if there is any evidence that Russia and China have "detargeted" their nuclear weapons under agreements signed by Mr. Clinton, the senior official suggested the measure cannot be verified.